If there is a x10 Event where you have x10 chance to get a specific champion - the chance of this happening is an extremely low amount (see below):
What x10 really means:
Assuming it is a non-Void champion, the way they do it is:
- Step 1: there are 94 non-Void Legendary Champions
- Step 2: subtract 1 if there is 1 champion in the x10 and add 10, so 94 - 1 + 10 = 103
- Step 3: 10 chances out of this 103 = 10 / 103 = 9.7% to get that one specific champion AFTER you get a legendary champion
So then we need to know what is the chance to get that legendary champion. The chance is:
- 0.5% chance per Ancient Shard
- Average needed to get a legendary champion = 200 shards (in reality it could be less or a lot more).
FINAL:
So we have 0.5% to get a legendary and then 9.7% to get the specific champion of the x10 Event, so 0.5% x 9.7% = 0.0485% chance to get it per shard
What if there are 2 champions in the x10 Event and you want to get one of them?
So we do:
- 94 - 2 + 20 = 112
- 10 out of 112 = 8.93%
- 0.5% x 8.93% = 0.04464% per shard to get one of the two
What if there are 3 champions in the x10 Event and you want to get one of them?
Then:
- 94 - 3 + 30 = 121
- 10 out of 121 = 8.26%
- 0.5% x 8.26% = 0.04132% per shard to get one of the three
So is x10 really x10? No.
I think not, because to get 1 random legendary the chance is 0.5%, so many players (especially younger people) might expect that x10 Event = 10 times = that would be 5%, but the chance is significantly less at 0.0485% and the more champions they are adding the less the chance becomes.
So x10 is a marketing trick to cheat players, however, there are still reasons why you would go for this insanely low chance:
- Reason 1: You might need to get points for Summon Rush Event or Champion Chase Event which contain Fusion related Fragments or Champions.
- Reason 2: During a x2 Event (1% chance to get a legendary instead of 0.5%) you have even a lower chance: 0.01064% to get one specific champion, so despite the low odds it is still better than the x2 odds.
- Reason 3: It is a champion you want very much and this is the highest of all the different horrible chances to get it.
- Reason 4: If you are tracking your Mercy System (not everyone is) and you know that you have already pulled 190 Ancient Shards and after 10 you start improving your chances, then your chance of getting a legendary champion rises significantly. So let's say within 10 shards you pull a legendary then you have almost 10% chance to get that one specific champion and that's a good chance.
