Monday, July 12, 2021

2x Legendary at 6% is same as 1x Legendary at 12% - or is it?

I see people excited about Plarium's trick RAID event where they offer an extra Legendary champion if players pull a Legendary with Sacred Shards themselves saying things like:

  • "Wow can you imagine you get double Legendary champions"
  • "Wow we are getting extra Legendary champions"
  • "Fantastic opportunity to get an extra Legendary champion"
  • and other similar statements.

This is, of course, complete nonsense, because pulling a Legendary champion, outside a 2x Event, with a 6% chance and getting a 2nd one if you are successful (big IF) is mathematically the same as pulling Sacred Shards during a 2x event where you have 12% chance of a Legendary champion.

Chance # of Sacred Shards used # Legendary expected Theoretical "double" Legendaries
6% 1000 60 120
12% 1000 120  /

No Additional Benefits

On top of that this "extra Legendary" event is happening at a time when you will not benefit in any other way in the game such as getting extra points for a Summon Rush event or a Champion Chase event.

Therefore pulling shards for only "one benefit" is significantly less efficient / beneficial than pulling shards during multiple events (e.g. x2 Event plus a Fusion SR or CC).

One Exception

So while technically there is absolutely nothing special about this "event" there is one consideration or opportunity for RAID players who are manually (and accurately) tracking their own Mercy system.

For example, if you have already pulled 9-13 Sacred Shards and all of them were Epic then you know that after the 12th Sacred Shard the chance starts rising by 2% per each shard. It is still not a guarantee that you will get a Legendary champion, but the chances are in your favor. So in this case you can strongly consider this event type and try to get "double" Legendary champions.

Although you should also consider that you will not have your shards when you may need them for Summon Rush or a Champion Chase events.

For most other RAID players who have no idea about their own Mercy counter and who have less than 10 Sacred Shards it is an unfavorable gamble to pull Sacred Shards during this event. Sure, some players will get the double and they will be very visible in chat and forums, but a great majority will lose and will remain silent (invisible).

Conclusion

  • For majority of RAID players: do not participate in this event - x2 is safer.
  • For those who accurately track their own Mercy AND who are close to 12 AND who have at least 5 Sacred Shards then only consider to participate.