Estimate of the last Champion Chase event Ancient Shards used and $ made by Plarium

In this blog post I estimate how much money Plarium made during the last Champion Chase event and how many shards were used by players. 

Update:

Some player feedback suggested I should be more conservative in the estimation. Therefore I have reduced several of the assumptions as follows:

• I reduce by 20% the Local 100 Group points from 393,456 (based on the group I was in) to 314,765 points
• This reduced the Total Local Group points from 2,754,190,711 points to 2,203,352,569 points.
• Then it was suggested not to add the Global 100 Group points to the above as those players are already part of various Local groups. Therefore the Total Points are now equal to the above.
• Then to further reduce the amounts I added average 500 free points per player to represent free points earned from fusing saved up champions.

The updated estimation is as follows:

Step 1: Points of Local and Global groups

• Total points of 100 players in a Local 100 Group: 314,765 points
  
• Total points of 100 players in the Global 100 Group: 10,183,604 points

Observation: I originally expected the Top player of Local groups to appear in Global, but this was not the case as there are a lot more Local Groups (see below).

Step 2: # of Players and Groups

• Assumption (web research): Daily active users playing RAID: 1,000,000
• Assumption: Participated in Champion Chase: 70% (I used this to reduce quantities just to be on the conservative side)
  
• Final number of players for calculation: 700,000
• Resulting number of Local Groups of 100 players: 7,000

Step 4: Total Points

• Points of 1 Local Group x 7,000 Groups = 2,203,352,569 points
• Total points together with the Global Group: it was suggested not to add the Global 100 Group points to the above as those players are already part of various Local groups.

Observation: sum of Local Groups is significantly more points/shards than the whales in the Global Group. 10,183,604 points out of 2,203,352,569 points represents 0.5%.

Step 5: # of Shards and $ spent estimates

Drop rates during x2 Ancient:

• 1% is Lego / 500 points
• 16% is Epic / 250 points
• 83% is Rare / 10 points

Preparation of Total points for breakdown: 

Assumption: Average free points earned by fusing saved up champions: 500 points per player
Total free points used by players: 350,000,000 

• Total points from above (total of Local Groups):  2,203,352,569 points
• of which free points from prepared summons were: 350,000,000
• Adjusted Total points remaining: 1,853,352,569 points

Result: Total points breakdown:

• Lego:18,533,526 points / 37,067 Ancient Shards
• Epic: 296,536,411 points / 1,186,146 Ancient Shards
• Rare: 1,538,282,632 points / 153,828,263 Ancient Shards

Assumption: Average free shards used: 50 Ancient Shards per player
Total free shards used by players: 35,000,000

• Total shards used: 155,051,476 Ancient Shards
• of which free shards were: 35,000,000
• purchased shards were: 120,051,476
  

Assumption: value of 1 Ancient Shard = $1
$ value of purchased shards during this 1 Champion Chase event: $120,051,476  

Happy to receive constructive feedback on the methodology.

Reference picture: Global Top 100

Picture taken 9 Feb 2022 after event completion.